Quick Thoughts on Florida and Michigan

I had hinted at this before, but now even Howard Dean is warming up to the idea of do-over primaries in June for Florida and Michigan. He's leaving it up to the states themselves, however, to come up with plans and financing if they want to do that.

The backstory here is, of course, that those two states moved up their primaries in violation of party rules, and the DNC punished them by stripping their delegates. All the candidates sided with the DNC-- yes, even Sen. Clinton-- and agreed not to campaign in those states, and not to be on the ballots. Surprise surprise, Clinton's name ended up on the Michigan ballot anyway and she won a victory there against "Uncommitted". She then won in Florida where she showed up that night to celebrate her faux-victory. She has since been demanding the decision be reversed and the delegates be seated at the convention. The reason, she insists, is not the personal benefit to her... it's that these voters have been disenfranchised!

And yet, with the possibility of those voters getting a renewed say (and a pivotal one to boot) in the election, the Clinton campaign doesn't seem to be leaping at the opportunity. How very odd.

While they are indicating they'd be open to this scenario, they don't seem too enthusiastic about it. "We believe that [original] vote ought to count," Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson said. It's pretty obvious here that they are not excited at the idea of a new vote. Clinton wants the original ones counted because Obama got zero delegates since he wasn't on the ballot (unless he changes his name to Barack Uncommitted to score those delegates). In a new primary, Clinton would likely win Florida, Obama could win Michigan, but neither by decisive margins, so they'd basically end up splitting the delegates when all was said and done.

She'd end up no closer to catching up to Obama's delegate lead, and thus would like now to avoid another two-state fight, despite her current concern (after weeks of mocking caucuses and red-states, etc) for the voter's voices. They'll take a do-over over nothing, but it's clear they'd be disappointed by that outcome.

Howard Dean is calling Hillary's bluff here. That's my personal take on this story.

[PS- Think I'm tough on the Clinton campaign? Read what Tim Dickinson has to say.]