Thoughts on Texas, Ohio, and Beyond

The conventional wisdom lately has been that today is Hillary Clinton's final stand and that anything short of a blowout victory will force her to drop out of the race (mathematically, her road to the nomination seems unlikely). And while I would like to believe this, so much about this primary season has been conventional wisdom getting turned on its head.

Short of losing Ohio (unlikely), Sen. Clinton will remain in this race for the long haul. Her whole life's ambition has been this race, and she knows that this is her one and only shot. And she feels cheated out of her prize (by voters, by the media, whoever else she can blame for her campaign's failures). I believe that she intends to see this whole primary season through (from today through Puerto Rico in June), because if you've been working toward something your whole life... what's another four months in the mud?

The main reason that I think she will stay in-- especially as she uses likely wins in Ohio and Rhode Island to create a "comeback kid" narrative like after New Hampshire-- is that Pennsylvania's primary next month seems tailor-made for her, and it's no small state. She has the Governor (and how!) and much of the political machine of that state working for her. She doesn't want that advantage wasted. She wants to win there, and then begin working over the superdelegates to get them back on the Clinton political gravy train.

And in between today and April 22-- in which there is a Wyoming caucus and a Mississippi primary everyone's ignoring-- she will continue her attacks on Obama... both subtle (the Kenyan garb photo) and explicit (the 3am ad), working to erode his support. Voters can be fickle, and she knows this.

Yes, her win in Ohio will likely only be a slim margin, meaning her and Obama would split the state's delegates, and give her no real boost toward the final delegate goal. But she wants the narrative back on her side, and that's what today is really about.