War With Iran This Week?

That's what some have been speculating for weeks, based on quiet reports of the moving of the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group fleet to the Persian Gulf and other rumblings. There are fears of Tonkin-style tomfoolery from our government, in which an attack is provoked by us, but the details would remain murky enough here at home to call Iran the aggressors and justify a military response. Keep in mind that the Senate did pass something called the 'Iran Freedom and Support Act' before they went on recess. Finally, the BBC reported that Condoleeza Rice's recent Mideast trip may have been about laying the groundwork for action against Iran.

Personally, as compelling as I find all these indicators to be, I don't buy it. This is pretty out there, even by modern standards. Even I do not believe that the White House is this monstrously insane and stupid. The tide is no longer with them. Besides this being a war which be a) immoral and illegal, and b) impossible to be accomplished successfully, I fail to see how this would help them politically (which would be the sole reason to act now). This country has turned against the war, the Bush crew knows that. A new invasion would only worry voters and solidify the fact that this is an administration that chooses wars with reckless abandon. It would also be too obvious as a ploy to work. People are actually paying attention to these things now, which is why all the recent terror alerts, etc, have failed to help the GOP. No doubt the White House wants to do this war before they leave office (and will certainly try), but they lack the political capital to pull this off right now. And this does speak volumes about how (justifiably) paranoid this administration's actions and hubris have made people, that they believe the administration would start a new WAR as a political October surprise.

So, no, I don't believe these rumors/fears, though I thought they were worth acknowleding.

[Related: Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter speaks to Democracy Now about Iran.]