Dissecting The Insurgency

There's an excellent article in the new issue of Time magazine looking at the current state of the Iraq insurgency and how it may not be too late for the U.S. to extract those who want involvement in the political process. The article makes clear the distinctions between the geniune insurgency (Iraqi dissidents) and the outside Al Qaeda forces that got involved and have overshadowed it (a distinction the Bush administration is only just now addressing publicly). The article makes the observation that some insurgents may be growing angry at how Zarqawi has overtaken the insurgency forces and that is where the hope lies. If U.S. officials and forces can reach out those these members sympathetic to the political process, and slowly convince them to end the violence, then that is the key to victory.

How likely is this? The article doesn't entirely cover all the hurdles to that, but does note that "so long as U.S. troops are in combat in Iraq" the insurgency will continue to find those willing to fight the troops and also that victory is "still a long way off".

The article:
The New Rules of Engagement-

As the insurgency rages on, a TIME investigation reveals a new U.S. push to exploit splits in its ranks. Can that help lead to an exit?

Highlights in examining the insurgency:

The Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi and his network of hard-line jihadis have long been the driving force of the insurgency, transforming it from a nationalist struggle to one fueled by religious zealotry and infused with foreign recruits. But... Iraqis are reclaiming the upper hand, forcing al-Zarqawi to adjust. Differences between Baathist insurgent groups and al-Qaeda are driven by discomfort with al-Zarqawi's extreme tactics and willingness among some Iraqi commanders to join the political process.

...

That's why U.S. officials in Iraq are reaching out to the Sunnis, the insurgents and former Baath Party members as part of a program to quell the violence by peeling them away from al-Zarqawi. "The fault line between al-Qaeda and the nationalists seems to have increased," says Ambassador Khalilzad

...

Mostly Baathists, nationalists and Iraqi Islamists, they oppose the occupation and any Baghdad government dominated by Iraqis sheltered from Saddam by foreign-intelligence agencies, such as Iran's or the U.S.'s. But they don't oppose democracy in Iraq. Many voted in the Oct. 15 constitutional referendum and have plans to participate in the Dec. 15 election. Few see a contradiction between voting and continuing to battle U.S. forces. "I voted in the referendum, and I'm still fighting, and everybody in my organization did the same," says Abu Marwan, the Army of Mohammed commander. "This is two-track war--bullets and the ballot. They are not mutually exclusive."

...

Adopting the long-standing attitudes of secular Baathists, some Sunni leaders tell TIME they have lost patience with al-Zarqawi and would consider cutting a political deal with the U.S. to isolate the jihadis. "If the Americans evidenced good intent and a timetable for withdrawal we feel is genuine, we will stand up against al-Zarqawi," says Abdul Salam al-Qubaisi, spokesman for the Association of Muslim Scholars. ... Baathist insurgent leader Abu Yousif, who has met with U.S. intelligence officers, says, "The insurgency is looking for a political outlet--once we have that, we could control al-Qaeda."

That requires a) compromise, and b) acknowleding that not everyone we fight are the "evildoers".

I do not believe this administration is capable of that.

The article also has these poll findings-
-47% favor withdrawing most troops in the next 12 months
-53% disapprove of Bush's job as President overall
-60% disapprove of his handling of Iraq
-50% feel the U.S. was wrong to invade Iraq
-51% feel the war has made us more vulnerable to a terrorist attack
-48% believe the President deliberately misled in the buildup to war

Finally- CNN has a special section for news on the Iraq stories...
Iraq: Transition of Power