Monday, November 03, 2008

Where Things Stand

So I was thinking about what topics to blog about today-- the economy, the war, other issues, the candidates themselves?-- and it seems almost pointless. I feel like I've been blogging about this election for years. I'm all opinion-ed out, and the many posts I've written in just the last week reflect that. The jury has heard all the arguments, and now it's time to deliberate.

So, I'll settle for being boring and doing the standard pre-election fare... horse race jabber and predictions!!

Yahoo has a great resource for seeing the latest, updated poll numbers (by state, by electoral votes, etc). It certainly does look encouraging. Unless the Bradley Effect is in play here to a supersized degree (I remain cautiously optimistic), I don't see what can happen by tomorrow to change where this is going. Real Clear Politics has a feature let you create/edit your own map. Here's mine-


Lest I be accused of liberal bias, I have decided to buy the McCain spin about 'tightening' polls and be very generous toward him. You'll note that I gave him not only Ohio and Florida, but also Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri... all states that Obama still has a good shot at winning. Notice then, even in this optimistic scenario for Team McCain/Palin, that Obama still wins. No, I'm not celebrating yet, I'm just wondering what the McCain victory scenario entails.

Ultimately, a lot of these close states depend on factors the candidates themselves have little control over... voter turnout, poll station dirty tricks and voter suppression, possible vote-counting errors, long and discouraging lines, or just plain old voter indecisiveness and mind-changing. See you tomorrow. It's going to be a long day.


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