The Iran Bombshell

The long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has finally been released, after a number of delays from inside the Bush/Cheney bunker. After years of doomsday warnings from the Bush administration and other neocon cheerleaders, the findings of our intelligence community (cleaned up after the Iraq debacle) following detailed research must be quite frightening, no?

No. The NY Times has the details-

A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb.

Bolded added by me, because... well, duh. This is big, BIG news. The article continues-

The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”

“Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might — if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible — prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program,” [it] states.

It further notes that, even if Iran were to resume a nuclear weapons program, it'd still be several years before they could build a weapon, and it's "very unlikely" they could produce the necessary materials in that time.

Think Progress has more on the NIE assessment.

No reaction yet from the President, Vice President, or the usual warmongers, but one administration official is trying to spin this news to their advantage. Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser, states that this proves they were right about Iran all along (?!), and adds that "It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that [nuclear proliferation] does not happen." Yes, your 2005-2007 rhetoric is definitely responsible for the halting of their program in 2003.

The article does partly credit "international pressure" and "sanctions" for the halt.

2003 was also the year when Iran offered the U.S. a diplomatic agreement (they'd renounce terror ties, allow transparency of nuclear work, etc... we'd renew diplomatic normalcy) which the Vice President had nixed. This new news might be a great opportunity to try and renew those talks.

After all, this is just two weeks after this also-encouraging news-

Iran seems to be honoring a commitment to stem the flow of deadly weapons into Iraq, contributing to a more than 50-percent drop in the number of roadside bombs that kill and maim American troops, a U.S. general said yesterday.

The comments by Maj. Gen. James Simmons marked rare U.S. praise for Iranian cooperation in efforts to stabilize Iraq.

Despite what so many have spent years telling us, war with Iran is not inevitable. Their threat has been exaggerated, using the same script as with Iraq. Now that reality is cemented in the form of this report, that scary rhetoric won't have the same impact. Not that the neocons won't still try, of course. Reality is a mere inconvenience for them.

But for now, another win for diplomacy, and another loss for war.

[UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias joked that neocon warmongers would decry this as a conspiracy to deny them their war. And proving that you can't out-satire our reality now, that's exactly the opinion of the National Review's Cliff May. As Time's Joe Klein notes, this report was gathered from multiple intelligence sources over a long period of time.]