Another Corner Turned?

With casualty figures in Iraq down from the summer, another roundup of 'We won! Take that Defeatocrats!' has begun. In previous years, such corner-turning moments were greeted by normally skeptical folk like Jon Stewart or Bill Maher as the sign that things had finally turned around. Turns out they hadn't. Lessons learned. Now even formerly cheery Mideast prognosticators are looking at such positive developments with the necessary air of caution.

And now, with that in the air, it seems that the reduction of forces in Iraq back to pre-surge levels (167,000 now to 140,000-145,000 by July)-- a matter of necessity due to being unable to sustain the stretched numbers past winter-- is beginning. Slowly, but beginning still.

This has journalists watching things unfold closely now to see if the President's escalation gambit will have accomplished anything other than buy him more time. From the AP-

The first big test of security gains linked to the U.S. troop buildup in Iraq is at hand.

The military has started to reverse the 30,000-strong troop increase and commanders are hoping the drop in insurgent and sectarian violence in recent months — achieved at the cost of hundreds of lives — won't prove fleeting...

...As the U.S. troop reductions proceed, it should become clear whether the so-called "surge" strategy that increased the U.S. troop presence in and around Baghdad resulted in any lasting gains against sectarianism. Critics note that the divided government in Baghdad has made few, if any, strides toward political reconciliation that the Americans have said is crucial to stabilizing the country...

...Also important is whether the Iraqi security forces — Iraqi army and police — are ready to take over from U.S. troops. If they are not, Petraeus' strategy could fail and the whole U.S. enterprise in Iraq could unravel.

In short, our entire strategy seems to be based on the good faith that the Iraqis-- who deserve a secure Iraq after all they've been through-- can overcome deep divides and clean up the massive mess created for them by Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and four years of the most incompetent occupation ever. Long way from shock and awe, no?

Will it work? Here's one less-than-optimist look inside these efforts-

The U.S. effort to organize nearly 70,000 local fighters to solidify security gains in Iraq is facing severe political and logistical challenges as U.S.-led forces struggle to manage the recruits and the central government resists incorporating them into the Iraqi police and army, according to senior military officials.

Gen. David H. Petraeus and other top commanders have hailed the initiative to enlist Iraqi tribes and former insurgents in the battle against extremist groups, but leaders of Iraq's Shiite-dominated government have feared that the local fighters known as "volunteers" -- more than 80 percent of whom are Sunni -- could eventually mount an armed opposition, Iraqi and U.S. officials said...

...The effort represents an opportunity to shore up local police and eventually relieve U.S. troops, but one that could prove fleeting or backfire if the volunteers are not organized quickly, officials said...

..."It's admittedly slow progress," said Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, a military spokesman in Baghdad,

Which is fine because, according to our leaders here, we've got all the time in the world.

[Related reading: Inside the Surge--
The American military finds new allies, but at what cost? (The New Yorker)]