Masturbatory 2008 Talk

I still believe all this 2008 talk is very silly at this point (our political system has apparently decided that the next election cycle begins two days after the last one ends), but it's fairly inescapable, so here goes... former Senator and 2004 VP candidate John Edwards has shocked the world officially announced his candidacy for the presidency. He made the announcement in New Orleans, a site meant to highlight his key issue of economic divide in America.

His top five issues? "Provide moral leadership in the world," "strengthen our middle class and end poverty," "guarantee universal health care for every American," "lead the fight against global warming," and "get America and other countries off our addiction to oil." Sounds good, but it remains to be seen if that (and/or his 2004 bid having been vindicated by changed political realities) can put him over the top in a crowded primary season. With that said, he's the most realistic Democratic candidate thus far.

Hillary Clinton seems the primary front-runner, but the bottom line is that she's also a Republican campaign manager's wet dream. Right now the Republican party is dispirited and fractured. This is for the best. But nothing would unite and galvanize them more than another opportunity to take down the Clintons. There's a reason partisan shills like the NY Post's John Podhoretz regularly tout the inevitability of President Hillary... because the 'threat' of that is the best hope for a united GOP front in 2008. Another Democratic favorite, Sen. Obama, is also a bad idea. Popular, yes, but not presidential material. Yet. And while Republican operatives will never so say so out loud, they would love having Democrats try for the first black president in 2008. This too would awaken certain parts of the conservative base. Most of the other candidates-- Joe Biden, etc-- are jokes.

So, short of Al Gore answering my prayers and entering the race (please!), and not counting governors (who, historically, have much better electability odds than members of congress) like Tom Vilsack or Bill Richardson, Edwards would seem to be the Democratic front-runner right now in my book.

Over on the GOP side, I have no idea what's going on. Sen. McCain's too old, the religious base doesn't trust him, and his Iraq policy is only supported by like 11% of Americans. Mitt Romney's been outed as a phoney. Rudy Guiliani is popular, but the religious base doesn't trust him either, and it remains to be seen whether my former mayor can ride the coattails of 9/11 to Washington DC. That's their big guns thus far.

And that's where it stands now... two long years before the actual election.