Where We Stand, Pt. II

A look at where we stand from political analyst Charlie Cook (via Talking Points Memo)-

The latest from Charlie Cook, who thinks the House goes to the Democrats, the only question being by how many seats:

The Senate is a very different situation and there are some very strange things going on.
In Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is gone. While the margin in Ohio is not nearly as wide, it's very hard to see how Mike DeWine makes it back either.

The strange ones are Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee in Montana and Rhode Island, respectively. Both races are basically even, pretty remarkable considering how dismal their prospects looked just a couple weeks ago. While even is a bad place for a Republican to be going into Election Day in this kind of environment, both have some momentum at this point.

Conversely, George Allen and Jim Talent, are dead even as well, but with no momentum, and that is very, very dangerous under these circumstances. Talent/Republicans have a fabulous field organization in Missouri, if Talent pulls it out, it might be the ground game that does it, but this is very tough for both.

In Tennessee, while Democrats are boasting of a very strong African-American early voting program, this race really does appear to have slipped away from Democrats. I'd be surprised to see Corker lose to Ford now.

As he noted, the Tennessee race seems to have slipped away from Harold Ford. The sad part about that is that the infamous ad aired by the GOP (the one they had to pull amid concerns of race-baiting) appears to have turned many swing voters against him. What a sad indictment of the voting public. Can the Democrats take the Senate without this one? I am skeptical, but we'll find out tomorrow.

Meanwhile, political analyst Stu Rothenberg is even more optimistic. On the Senate-

While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate.

On the House-

Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years.

Enjoy these predictions, which could all be wrong, though I hope not.

I, personally, am not counting my chickens. Voter apathy and GOP dirty tricks are the real swing vote in this election. The fact that any of these elections are within the margin of error today speaks volumes about the complacency of the voters of this country. It's been a long time since we've seen such disastrous, backwards governing in this country, and yet here we are struggling just to throw enough bums out to turn around control of Congress. This is pretty pathetic.

At this point I would describe myself as guardedly optimistic, though. I feel the wave, but I am not going to delude myself into believing that popular opinion and anger and hope translate correctly at the voting booth. But I am holding onto hope, because without that my brain wouldly implode upon itself after all of this.

1 more day, 1 more day...