Where We Stand

A look at where we stand from political analyst Charlie Cook (via Talking Points Memo)-

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.

The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.

In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party's candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.

This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list. Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.

Please, please let this actually translate into hard results next Tuesday.

At this point I would describe myself as guardedly optimistic. I feel the wave, but I am not counting my chickens, etc. I was certain in that last stretch of the 2004 campaign that Sen. Kerry had hammered it home and then found myself on the morning of November 3rd watching him concede defeat to a President who would go on to use the mandate he claimed to further divide his nation. So I am not going to delude myself into believing that popular opinion and anger and hope translate correctly at the voting booth. But I am holding onto hope, because without that my brain wouldly implode upon itself after all of this.

Conservative columnist George Will wrote earlier this month that "After the 1936 election, in which President Franklin Roosevelt shellacked the Republican nominee in all but two states, a humorist wrote: 'If the outcome of this election hasn't taught you Republicans not to meddle in politics, I don't know what will.' If, after the Foley episode -- a maraschino cherry atop the Democrats' delectable sundae of Republican miseries -- the Democrats cannot gain 13 seats, they should go into another line of work."

Ignoring what the Democratic party would do if they fail to win either the House (which seems a lock at this point) or the Senate (a tougher shot, but within reach), I don't know what I would do. If we cannot get rid of this Congress (the worst ever, as Rolling Stone correctly notes) and have voters hold this President accountable for the numerous disasters and abuses of the past 6 years-- the war(s), Katrina, torture and prisons, deficit, the loss of jobs, the degrading of our democracy into one-party authoritarianism, the religious right's hijacking of our government as embodied by the Shiavo affair, constitutional integrity, etc etc x100-- then I will officially have lost all hope in the system. These people are killing my ability to believe in America. And I hate them for it. As Bill Maher quipped last week, what will it say about our country if we can't throw the bums out?

But I'm getting ahead of myself. There's still one week left. I am literally counting the days.