Will Democrats Snatch Defeat From The Jaws of Victory?

It is pretty much conventional wisdom that Democrats will retake the House this Fall, and quite possibly the Senate as well. So why am I not convinced? Well, probably because I've been here before- 2000 and 2004 are the best examples. The Democrats are the sure winners... and then they lose. Of course, I am sure voter fraud counts for a lot of that and I am sure will be in play this year. But considering the GOP's track record, no race should be close enough for that to be a factor.

There is another likely reason, of course- incumbency. The majorities of voters do not pay close attention to politics. They may hate their Senator or Representative, see the ads for his/her opponent, but when they walk into the booth on Election Day (if they do at all) they just push down the level for the name they recognize more- the incumbent. All the anger over Iraq, wages, and gas prices matters little when people vote this way. Strict, down-the-line partisan voting affects this too, but reports indicate the GOP base is shaking on that front. I am encouraged by that news, as well as the unusually high anti-incumbent trends we saw in the summer primary races. So I am holding onto hope.

The NY Times had this depressing news yesterday, however-

In a year when Democrats hope to take control of the House of Representatives, New York would appear to be fertile ground for toppling Republican incumbents. Democrats have a statewide edge in enrollment, and a popular incumbent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, is at the top of the party’s ticket.

Currently there are 54 competitive races in the U.S. House across the country, including five in New York.
In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote, and there is an emerging consensus among political analysts that the party’s best chance for capturing a Republican seat is the battle to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, who is retiring...

So what do Democrats need to do to seal the deal with voters (besides making sure Republicans don't shift focus away from the national debate)? Articulate their opposition strategy.

I turned on local news channel NY1 last night a little bit after President Bush finished his speech. The host was taking calls and emails to get viewers' response to the speech. Not a single person who called or wrote in, not one, liked the speech. They found it uninspiring and said that the rhetoric he used was the same as always, and that they have lost faith in his ability to turn rhetoric into results. This is encouraging. But when a caller brought up the Democrats, a general theme was heard... they are leaning toward them, but they haven't heard the Democrats properly articulate what their policies will be. In addition to simply pointing out the numerous failures of Bush and the GOP, voters want the Democrats to include a forward-thinking aspect to their campaigns, clearly laying out what they would do differently, and better. I hope Sen. Schumer or some of the other Democratic campaign bigwigs were watching.

Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall has more advice for Dems: Get off your ass-

A message to Dems: Get off your butt, forget the cult of Rove, and start contesting the election.

[T]he bigger victory Rove has managed over Democrats [is this]: his ability to get deep inside the heads of many Democrats and make them think that no matter what the situation or what the available facts suggest, Karl Rove must be on top of the situation and it must be playing to his advantage. The only question is finding out precisely how.

Don't get me wrong. I think the man is a blight on the country, one who consistently uses amoral tactics and often immoral in his goals. But he's no genius. And I think his political gifts are actually quite overstated. The GOP has had a damn good run for the last six years. But I don't think that's mainly because of Karl Rove. I think it's largely because of 9/11 and a pretty effective policy of exploiting it for narrow political goals.

Yesterday, I noted that the RNC is banking on oppo research and personal attacks on Democratic candidates to get them through November in one piece. As a sign of what's to come, they've put in charge of the effort one of their number involved in not one but two recent cases of Republican campaign corruption and criminal conduct.

So, yes, be ready for anything. But it is also hard to think of another time when the incumbent party stood before the country with more of a record of failure, incompetence and corruption as the Republican party of President George Bush does today. That's more than enough to run on, if only the decision is made to really contest this election on the issues before the country, to, in a word, fight.

Also sound advice. The Democrats cannot continue to let the Republicans frame the debate, and then simply yell back at that their framing. They need to set the terms of the debate themselves and be 100% unafraid to challenge the Republicans on any issue, even if their misguided beltway wisdom says it's politically expedient to stay quiet. The squeaky wheel gets the voters. Run, Democrats, run... and put your heart into it this time.

Finally, an encouraging sign... The President's national security fearopalooza may be outlasting its usefulness.