Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?

A new article written for the bipartisan Council on Foreign Relations asks that question: "Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?". It's a tricky question. Yes, there are terrorists and yes they are quite global in their reach (but are less organized, more decentralized, and less competent than we originally believed). I think the question he is really asking here is "Does the reality of terrorism match the narrative we created after 9/11?". This is a debate the country needs to have, if only so that we can put the issue in its proper perspective and stop letting it dominate American life and politics.

The author, in addition to a detailed analysis of the current status of Al Qaeda, correctly points the finger for this enduring narrative on those running our country (the administration, the media) who have always had a vested interested in us believing we are under constant threat of death from jihadists in our midsts- 'TERRORISTS UNDER THE BED' he named one section. I don't agree with all of the conclusions that he makes (I wish I was convinced that Al Qaeda "scarcely exists", as he asserts- 'sparsely', maybe), but I think it's worth reading for some needed perspective on the subject.

Some key sections-

If al Qaeda operatives are as determined and inventive as assumed, they should be here by now. If they are not yet here, they must not be trying very hard or must be far less dedicated, diabolical, and competent than the common image would suggest...

...[N]one of this is to deny that more terrorist attacks on the United States are still possible. Nor is it to suggest that al Qaeda is anything other than a murderous movement...

...But while keeping such potential dangers in mind, it is worth remembering that the total number of people killed since 9/11 by al Qaeda or al Qaeda like operatives outside of Afghanistan and Iraq is not much higher than the number who drown in bathtubs in the United States in a single year, and that the lifetime chance of an American being killed by international terrorism is about one in 80,000 -- about the same chance of being killed by a comet or a meteor. Even if there were a 9/11-scale attack every three months for the next five years, the likelihood that an individual American would number among the dead would be two hundredths of a percent (or one in 5,000).

Although it remains heretical to say so, the evidence so far suggests that fears of the omnipotent terrorist -- reminiscent of those inspired by images of the 20-foot-tall Japanese after Pearl Harbor or the 20-foot-tall Communists at various points in the Cold War (particularly after Sputnik) -- may have been overblown, the threat presented within the United States by al Qaeda greatly exaggerated. The massive and expensive homeland security apparatus erected since 9/11 may be persecuting some, spying on many, inconveniencing most, and taxing all to defend the United States against an enemy that scarcely exists.

Of course, I don't think we will be able to approach this subject as nation rationally until at least 2009.