Did Hezbollah Win? Yes And No.

This war between Israel and Hezbollah almost certainly isn't over- merely paused by a fragile U.N. resolution- so identifying a 'winner' at this point is quite silly. As the ceasefire took hold, both sides, not surprisingly, claimed victory. Hezbollah says it defeated Israel simply by surviving. Israel, backed up by President Bush, says it defeated Hezbollah by putting it on the ropes. But since the goal of each in the war was to annihilate the other, obviously they both lost. The countless piles of dead civilians on both sides, as well as the massive damage done to Lebanon's infrastructure, would validate that.

But, in this time-out period, it is clear who is winning the propaganda/PR end of the war.... Hezbollah by a mile. Israel didn't help matters; their failure to communicate with Lebanon (and the world community at large) to simply articulate their long-term strategies cost them support and sympathy in a struggle where they normally would've had it with little question. A big reason that Hezbollah has managed to booster its profile, particularly among even many moderates in Lebanon, is the work they have done in that country. The NY Times has details-

As stunned Lebanese returned Tuesday over broken roads to shattered apartments in the south, it increasingly seemed that the beneficiary of the destruction was most likely to be Hezbollah.

A major reason — in addition to its hard-won reputation as the only Arab force that fought Israel to a standstill — is that it is already dominating the efforts to rebuild with a torrent of money from oil-rich Iran...

In his victory speech on Monday night, Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, offered money for “decent and suitable furniture” and a year’s rent on a house to any Lebanese who lost his home in the month-long war.

“Completing the victory,” he said, “can come with reconstruction.”...

...While the Israelis began their withdrawal, hundreds of Hezbollah members spread over dozens of villages across southern Lebanon began cleaning, organizing and surveying damage. Men on bulldozers were busy cutting lanes through giant piles of rubble. Roads blocked with the remnants of buildings are now, just a day after a cease-fire began, fully passable...

....Hezbollah’s reputation as an efficient grass-roots social service network — as opposed to the Lebanese government, regarded by many here as sleek men in suits doing well — was in evidence everywhere. Young men with walkie-talkies and clipboards were in the battered Shiite neighborhoods on the southern edge of Bint Jbail, taking notes on the extent of the damage.

“Hezbollah’s strength,” said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a professor at the Lebanese American University here, who has written extensively about the organization, in large part derives from “the gross vacuum left by the state.”...

Yes, this rebuilding/charity work is just propaganda work for the well-connected Hezbollah, but it works. It should come as a surprise to no one that the loyalty of a poor Lebanese citizen whose home was bombed will end up going to those who helped rebuild it. Just as Americans don't pay attention to the minutia, and are ill-informed, of politics, so the Lebanese people may give little thought to the fact that these great services are being provided by a group that is doing their country, and the region, great harm.

(On a sidenote, it should make us feel ashamed that a terror organization is doing impressive rebuilding work in Lebanon, while we are bungling projects left and right. We can't rebuild Iraq- and much of the money allotted for that has 'disappeared' thanks to companies like Halliburton- and we can't even rebuild New Orleans, a city in our own country. Not relevant to this discussion, just thought it was pretty sad.)

As I said earlier this month as ceasefire talks were beginning, this grassroots popularity of Hezbollah needs to be taken into account in any plans to remove it. Sadly, Hezbollah is an entrenched part of these countries, not some rogue militia that can be bombed away. The path to marginalizing them is a question of reaching out to the average people living in these countries, recognizing they have legitimate concerns, allowing for some level of compromise with them, and encouraging them then to take back their countries from the radical elements that control the region and lock them in circular violence. Easier said than done, especially with the Lebanese government refusing to disarm Hezbollah or accept responsibility for them, but that seems to me the right direction to move toward. Responding with force when necessary- and not in an undefined way as was occurring- can be argued for, but you cannot truly defeat Hezbollah so long as it retains this level of cult hero status among the people there.

Win over the Lebanese people and you're on the path to defeating Hezbollah. Yes, this may involve the type of 'carrot and stick' diplomacy the war-hungry neocons hate so much, but considering they have no victories and only quagmires to show for their supposed brilliance, I'm not too concerned with their position. Israel and the U.S. want a war, but maybe they should look first at the weapon Hezbollah has succeeded with- propaganda. If they can't even win that war, then all the katyusha rockets in the world will do little but pile up more bodies.

UPDATE: Hollywood plays too! Stars take out a letter condemning Hezbollah and Hamas.

Meanwhile, the U.S. prepares- albeit somewhat clumsily- its own efforts in Lebanon.



[PS- The most ardent Bush cultists believe the U.N.'s resolution to the conflict constitutes the greatest failure of his presidency and of the century thus far. Yipes! Harsh! Meanwhile, as the conflict refocused attention on Iran, a group- including 21 former generals, diplomats and national security officials- tries to tell the President that Iran is not the crisis he believes it is.]