Iraq: Make Or Break Time

It's do or die week (maybe even literally) for the Iraqis. This week's parliamentary elections will be the turning point in the war... or so the White House wants us to believe. It's all they've been talking about for weeks, hoping that a successful election will lead to the booming (but not in an explosion kind of way) democracy we've been told is there waiting to flourish. This would, in turn, justify/absolve for them 2.5 years of violence, anarchy, misinformation, and constant mistakes. As Iraqis stand up, we still stand down. And Republicans can then look forward to putting the war behind them, so they can go back to their agenda of... cutting taxes, ballooning the deficit, dismantling Social Security, merging church and state, saving comatose women from their husbands, and ignoring Osama bin Laden.

Of course, this election will not (in the short-term, anyway) be a deciding factor in Iraq.

Recall that Iraq had another high-profile election last January that was heralded as a humongous success. It too supposedly vindicated the President's Iraq policy. Even notably cynical people like Jon Stewart and Bill Maher were second-guessing their opinions of the war after that election. Purple fingers were seen in every newspaper. But it wasn't to last. The election didn't change the big picture in Iraq. The violence grew worse and the country's infrastructure remained in tatters. The Iraqi woman who stood next to Laura Bush at the post-election State of the Union address turned against the war and against the White House. I wouldn't expect to see her at the next State of the Union address.

So the question isn't necessarily whether this election this week will go off smoothly. It is likely that it will be and that Iraqis will vote in larger numbers than last time (even many insurgents are planning to stop blowing stuff for up for a few hours to vote). The real determining factor of its success will be whether it has any impact on the violence or the insurgency (the Iraqi part of it anyway, Al Qeada will be dealt with later I suppose). Will this be a government that welcomes, and encourages, Sunni participation? If so, will enough Sunni dissidents abandon the insurgency that it will dwindle to a size that can be defeated? If not, what's plan B? The impact that the election has on the violence and the divisions that caused it will be the real litmus test for victory.

If things don't go as the White House is predicting (has anything?), how much longer will the Iraqis tolerate us staying in their country? And how much more patience will the American people have in waiting for the Bush administration to win a war that the majority no longer believe in?

These are the questions to keep in mind as Iraq heads toward Thursday's election.

Some links on where we stand now...

An ABC polls shows Iraqis optimistic about the future, but also disapproving of the military presence there:
Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq, But Also Deep Divisions Among Groups

An ABC News poll in Iraq, conducted with Time magazine and other media partners, includes some remarkable results: Despite the daily violence there, most living conditions are rated positively, seven in 10 Iraqis say their own lives are going well, and nearly two-thirds expect things to improve in the year ahead...

...Other views, moreover, are more negative: Fewer than half, 46 percent, say the country is better off now than it was before the war. And half of Iraqis now say it was wrong for U.S.-led forces to invade in spring 2003, up from 39 percent in 2004.

There's other evidence of the United States' increasing unpopularity: Two-thirds now oppose the presence of U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq, 14 points higher than in February 2004. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the United States has operated in Iraq since the war, and most of them disapprove strongly. And nearly half of Iraqis would like to see U.S. forces leave soon...

And President Bush gives his estimate on the cost (in Iraqi lives) of the war:
President Bush offered encouragement to war-weary Iraqis on Monday but acknowledged they have paid a heavy price — 30,000 dead — as a result of the U.S.-led invasion and its bloody aftermath...

Easy bet... that estimate is on the low end.

And the voting begins early for some in Iraq:
Early Voting Begins in Iraqi Parliamentary Elections-

Voters to Choose First Fully Constitutional Assembly Since Beginning of War

Well... here goes nothing.